Though there has been policy progress in Europe, the global economic backdrop remains decidedly challenging, Eskesen said, adding domestic conditions have remained fairly stable, though, and underlying inflation has stayed firm.
While news on the monsoon front remains bleak (rainfall during June 1 to 17 was 45 per cent below normal), water levels in reservoirs across the country are dwindling, Citi economist Rohini Malkani said on Monday. Earlier this month, Citi revised its FY'10 GDP forecast for India to 6.8 per cent from 5.5 per cent and it raised its view to 7.8 per cent from 6.6 per cent for FY'11 on the back of election results and higher investment growth.
The PMO also directed a careful watch on the intensity and spread of rainfall over the next week or so, especially in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
RBI's latest rate cut is positive for the economy.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
This may rescue pulses, cotton and oilseed sowing; rain revival in the south to take longer
The India meteorological department said another western disturbance is likely to bring storms and rain to the northern plains, including Delhi, over the next few days.
Increased production of pulses, oilseeds, and cereals will help boost domestic supplies and contribute to keeping inflation low in the coming months.
The minister blamed 'fragmented farming, provisions in the Agricultural Produce Marketing (Development & Regulation) Act, lack of cold chain facilities, transportation, proper storage and processing facilities' for the losses.
IMD will present its month-wise and region-wise forecast in June.
The headline HSBC Services Business Activity Index was at a 17-month peak of 54.4 in June rising from a modest 50.2 in May, HSBC said adding that 'the Modi wave has struck the service sector'.
Some global weather watchers have warned that India will likely see below-normal rainfall during this coming monsoon -- and that should be taken seriously, regardless of whether it turns out to be true or not.
Farm production may go down a bit due to late and "below-normal" monsoon but the fall is unlikely to be substantial as the sowing season is far from over, said state-owned Indian Agricultural Research Institute.
Projecting a higher growth rate of 8.3 per cent, the Confederation of Indian Industry on Thursday tempered the optimism with the caution that hardening interest rates, below-normal monsoon and spiralling oil prices could cut-off the crescendo.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
55% of cultivable land still doesn't come under irrigation.
India now faced a higher likelihood of a drought in some parts, as monsoon rain would be less than predicted in April, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Friday.
A likely western disturbance over north India during the weekend might cause heavy to very heavy showers in a few places, including New Delhi.
Nearly 21 per cent of the country has received "deficient" rainfall till July 31, the India Meteorological Department on Monday said.
This should augur well for the rabi crops as delayed withdrawal will leave enough moisture in the soil for early sowing.
Kharif sowing till June 20 almost 18 per cent less than last year; 328 districts under watch, based on rains in the first 15 days
Weather watchers said it can't be known till May whether El Nio will impact the monsoon or not.
Skymet lowered its full season monsoon forecast to 'below normal' from 'normal', while the IMD is sticking to its earlier forecast that rains in June to September of 2018 would be 'normal' at 97 per cent of the LPA with a model error of +/-5 per cent.
Above-normal heatwave days are predicted in most parts of central, east and northwest India during this period.
Any long dry spell could cause moisture stress in the standing crop during the crucial maturing stage and also make it prone to pest and disease attacks.
The stock of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has been touching successive all-time highs on the bourses and, over the past year, gained 81 per cent. While the S&P BSE Auto Index has not performed poorly, registering gains of 73 per cent, it still trails the company by 800 basis points (bps) during this period. There are multiple reasons why investors are beating a path to M&M's counter.
Several global models are predicting El Nio to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.
They are worried at more than one forecast of a possibly weak monsoon, reports Dilip Kumar Jha.
Skymet is credited with correctly predicting the 2009 drought.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
The prices of oilseed, coarse cereals & vegetables could also be affected.
India is set to experience extreme heat during the April to June period, with the central and western peninsular parts expected to face the worst impact, the IMD said on Monday as the country prepares for seven-phase general elections from April 19.
The El Nino risks for this year is rising in India and it could result in sub-par rains, says a report.
The planet experienced its warmest January on record last month despite the development of La Nia, a climate pattern that usually brings cooler global temperatures, the European climate agency said on Thursday. This comes on the heels of the Earth experiencing its hottest year on record in 2024, also the first to see global average temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), January 2025 recorded an average temperature of 13.23 degrees Celsius, 0.09 degrees warmer than the previous hottest January (2024) and 0.79 degrees above the 1991-2020 average. Scientists also found that the Earth's temperature in January was 1.75 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures have stayed above the 1.5-degree mark for 18 of the last 19 months.
Government sources said Modi will also chair meetings to review the aftermath of the Cyclone Remal, especially in the north east region hit by natural disasters.
A depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
Timely onset of south-west monsoon is crucial for kharif (summer) crops.
Monsoon is expected to cover central and eastern India after Tuesday.
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